危机后期经济增长方式转变、指导思想与实践路径——必须依据马克思主义理论为指导克服危机

经济增长理论是社会经济增长的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论。但是发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整的建立经济增长理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国经济结构以及产业结构的调整,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践中经济结构及产业结构的优化升级。     

Changes in volatility of credit spread and market efficiency during rapid growth of credit-related securities

This paper investigates the changes in credit spread volatility during 1993–2001. We find that the credit spreads between junk-grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds were significantly more volatile in the second half of this period when credit-related securities became popular. In contrast, investment-grade bonds exhibited no significant change in volatility. The junk bonds variance ratios changed from being less than one to greater than one. Using the GJR-Garch model, the conditional volatilities of junk bonds increased in the second half of the period and the mean reversion speeds slowed, suggesting a longer time for mean reversion to occur. Our analysis rules out treasury volatility, credit spread level, equity market return, T-bill rate, curvature of the Treasury curve, financial crisis, quantity of defaults and standard deviation of defaults as explanations for the increase in junk bond volatility. In contrast, volatility of equity returns provides a partial explanation of junk bond spread volatility in the later period.     

Internal and external factors in innovation persistence

This paper contributes to the analysis of the persistence of innovation activities, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP), and explores its internal and external determinants stressing its path-dependent characteristics. The external conditions, namely the quality of local knowledge pools and the strength of the Schumpeterian rivalry, along with the internal conditions (the actual levels of dynamic capabilities, as proxied by wage levels and firm size) exert a specific and localised effect upon the persistent introduction of innovations. A multiple transition probability matrixes (MTPMs) approach has been implemented to capture the contingent effects of external factors on long-term innovation persistence. The empirical analysis of the dynamics of firm-level TFP for a sample of approximately 7000 Italian manufacturing companies observed during the years 1996–2005 is based on both the comparison of different transition probability matrixes and on dynamic discrete choice panel data models. The evidence provided by the test of MTPMs in sub-periods suggests that innovation persistence is path-dependent, as opposed to past-dependent.     

A security evaluation approach for information systems in telecommunication enterprises

In recent years, information systems in telecommunication enterprises have been characterised by boundary expansion and increase of departmental-level applications. These changes increase the complexity of security evaluation and pose new challenges to enterprises' information security. Taking into account the behaviour characters of system users, we put forward a system security evaluation approach based on access paths. This approach can help evaluators and users find out potential security risks without figuring out the boundary of systems explicitly. It has no special requirements for system scale and can be used in the evaluation of enterprise-level and departmental-level systems. This paper also presents the formal definition of access path and related evaluation rules.     

Forest transition in South Korea: Reality, path and drivers

While forest transition (FT) in South Korea began in 1955, when forest cover was only 35% of national land area, significant increases in both forest cover and growing stock really occurred in the early 1970s. Using reconstructed historical records, we empirically demonstrate that (1) FT in South Korea was mainly accomplished by the recovery of degraded, non-stocked forest; and (2) one-dimensional FT analysis using forest area alone has severe limitations in diagnosing meaningful changes in forest sustainability. The key driver of FT in South Korea was the government-led reforestation policy. The comprehensive reforestation plans, started in 1973, not only provided economic incentives to the general public by establishing clear quantifiable goals, they also promoted inter-agency cooperation and coordination, especially between the energy and forest sectors, to replace firewood with fossil fuels. These government-led efforts, accompanied by rural-urban migration, brought an increase in stocked forest area and a complementary rising average growing stock level. The case of South Korea shows that FTs can be cultivated in a relatively short period of time by a central authority, even with imperfect governance and low economic development.     

金融危机传染的信用路径

从信用理论来看,金融危机传染的内在路径,就是其传染的信用路径。通过分析发现,金融危机传染的信用路径共有四种:信用主体双向性传染、信用关系性传染、信用心欲性传染、信用信息性传染。一个国家受到他国传染而爆发金融危机往往是四种信用路径的传染同时作用的结果。     

大学生和谐发展体系模式和机制建构探析

在研究大学生和谐发展的现状及制约因素的基础上,并基于大学生全面和谐发展目标实现的视角,从大学生和谐发展的理论出发,探索大学生和谐发展体系框架,并提出了和谐教育在大学生全面发展目标实现中的机制,以促进社会的全面和谐发展。     

农村集体资产管理的政府干预探析

政府的适时介入、适度干预是强化农村集体资产管理的必然之需。但是，政府对农村集体资产管理的干预是一柄“双刃剑”：一方面，这种干预起到了提高农村财务人员素质、规范农村财务管理以及从源头治腐等积极效应；另一方面，这种干预也引发了侵害集体财产、增加基层政府财政压力等负面效应。当前，亟须对农村集体资产管理政府干预的路径进行优化：一是要明确农村集体资产管理政府干预的基本原则，二是要解决好农村集体资产管理政府干预的四个关键性问题。     

基于MapBasic的TOPN分析模块的实现

介绍一种基于MapInfo平台,利用Mapbasic开发的用于分析网络KPI指标的TOPN模块的实现。该插件的应用,使得网络优化工程师能够直观地了解网络的状态,把具体的数据和图形相结合,提高了分析和问题定位的效率。     

大学生成长路径的机理溯源和引导措施探究

大学生成长路径不同,大学生成长发展也就表现出不同的特点。高校思想政治教育应更多关注大学生成长路径。要努力追溯成长路径的理论机理渊源,高校对大学生成长路径应推出相应的实践引导措施,促进大学生对成长路径的自觉选择和良性形成。